There are a number of variations of the Kelly Criterion — some of which look much scarier than others — however the one that makes most sense to me is written below. This formula is based on bets with two outcomes — i. Luckily, there are multiple Kelly calculators online which can take away some of the pain, particularly http: Using the Tottenham example above, betting on Spurs to win at evens decimal odds of 2. A couple of points for consideration when using the formula.
If you have a zero edge — i. Similarly, if you have a negative edge — i. The main — and somewhat significant — flaw to the Kelly Criterion is that it assumes that you know the true probability of an event happening. Whereas this is easier to ascertain when flipping a coin, it becomes near on impossible to predict for a football game involving 22 players or a horserace with 10 runners. If you cannot be sure your probabilities are entirely accurate, then this could cause detrimental effects on your bank roll, particularly if you have a habit of overestimating the likelihood of winning rather than underestimating!
Another drawback is that the percentage result from the Criterion is often a significant proportion of your bank balance, meaning that large stakes may be required. The Kelly Criterion aims to increase your betting bank at the optimal — or maximum — rate possible, which is a relatively aggressive approach. There is a lot to learn before you even get started.
Getting yourself acquainted with how to read the odds for hockey games obviously important if you want to bet on them! When you view NHL odds you are typically going to see a money line on each team and a total for the game. If you are familiar how to bet baseball, hockey betting works very much the same way. For the purposes of this article we will use a fictional matchup between the Canadiens and Bruins.
Here is what you would see at the sportsbook:. When we talk about money line bets, the important thing to keep in mind is that you are simply picking who you think will win the game, there is no point spread to worry about. This is where the money line comes in. Think of it as each team being weighted based on their perceived expectation to win the game.
If you want to delve into this further, our money line to win percentage conversion chart shows the hypothetical percentage a team is expected to win at a given money line. Just like with point spreads in other sports, the negative number represents the favorite and the positive number represents the underdog in the matchup. In our example, the Boston Bruins are small favorites. If you wanted to bet on the Bruins to win have to pay a premium since they are the favorite.
The simple formula for calculating how much you will need to risk to win a given amount is:. With hockey totals books set a hypothetical number of total goals to be scored in a given game and you would wager on if you think there will be more goals than that number the over or less goals than that number the under. If you think the teams will combine to score more than five goals, you would wager on the over. This can vary from book to book, so be sure to check the rules before placing a wager so you are not caught off guard when it comes time to collect!
The puck line is a 1. On the flip side, because so many games are decided by one goal, you pay a premium to take the underdog on the puck line. If you take a favorite on the puck line, they must win by two or more goals. If you take an underdog on the puck line, they must either win the game outright or lose by exactly one goal. Now, to understand just how big of an impact the puck line has on that vig, consider that this is what the normal money line would look like for this same game:.
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