Mike Smithson (British journalist)

A Labour MP said: Political wagering is a great betting market because it reveals the attitudes of the public towards their leader. Understand the type of government in which you are betting. Why Bet on Politics?

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The Tradefair team bring Betfair's array of Donald Trump markets are spiking again after two of his close advisors were convicted of multiple crimes. Is impeachment on the cards? A number of leading US publications have published articles about the importance of a free press, as President Trump calls them enemies.

The Tradefair team b Tuesday sees the final Special Congressional Election before the mid-terms. Paul Krishnamurty previews the neck-and-neck race for Ohio 12 and the implication Donald Trump is showing signs that the investigation into the election is starting to weigh down on him. The Tradefair team brings you the latest from U As the Mueller investigation escalates, with the first significant trial starting tomorrow, Paul Krishnamurty predicts the result will be the premature retir Donald Trump has met with top EU officials to discuss trade and both parties have agreed on a future plan.

The Tradefair team brings you the latest from US p OK, I get it. The paucity of quality of the field, however, suggests that the Conservatives will be likely to make heavy weather against Labour. What of Ms Davidson? Having announced that she does not want to be Prime Minister she has benefited from a wave of sympathy from a public that finds a great renunciation a compelling story.

It does raise a further awkward question, however: She had better have a clear answer. Well this is very interesting. The Sunday Times reports. While those who are aware of the discussions say there is no imminent threat to Corbyn, they claim it is the first time that senior party figures have begun to question whether he is the right person to lead Labour into the next general election. While he is not actively agitating against the Labour leader, there are people around him who are starting to raise questions about the future of the leadership and whether some of the shine is beginning to fall off Corbyn.

Corbyn provoked further fury within the party last week when he said he would not protect colleagues facing the threat of deselection by hard-left activists. However, McDonnell is said to have privately told colleagues that he is not in favour of the mandatory reselection process, in comments which have been interpreted by some as part of his charm offensive to win over Labour MPs. A Labour MP said: How much have you heard Labour banging on about the problems with Universal Credit or the train system in recent months?

Those are but two areas where the government is vulnerable. The leadership and members seem more obsessed with the Middle East than Middle England, focussing on the latter helps wins general elections in this country, not the former. On average this year there has been a 3 point lead of those who think Britain was wrong to vote for Brexit over those who think Britain was right to do so https: There is an overwhelming perception that the Brexit negotiations are not turning out well.

Neither is the perceived poor progress of negotiations necessarily seen as a reason to replace May. So when you consider all of those variables you can understand my reluctance to bet on this market. Perhaps you can persuade me which option to back but I suspect this is one of those markets where the profitable choice is not to bet.

In recent times Texas has been a safe banker for the GOP but demographics are trending back to the Dems, so what might help tip the balance is if the Dems choose a native son or daughter to be their nominee. So if a new party is formed the only way I can see this bet winning is if we get a results across the country reminiscent of Inverness, Nairn, and Lochaber in Brexit is not unlike Hurricane Florence.

A huge amount of energy is being expended, mostly to destructive effect, dumping a load of output which is flooding out a great deal else, while not going anywhere fast. And just as Florence attracts storm-chasers, Brexit attracts any number of other eccentrics, on all sides, either to participate in the main thing or to chase rainbows.

A referendum can only happen if the government wants one. Each needs its own legislation to compel councils to run the polling stations, postal votes and so on. So voting would have to be done the normal way, which means an Act of Parliament — and that only happens if the government drafts and introduces the Bill, and makes time for it.

Before we get a Bill though, there needs to be some consensus on what the question to be put is or questions are. Without that consensus, any campaign would suffer from too much infighting and too many divisions to effectively apply pressure to the government. Also, there would need to be some thought as to what happens after the vote. However, first of all, that legislation.

The first referendum Bill took over six months to go through parliament in Even if a new Bill could be rammed through in just one month — a process which would undoubtedly leave malcontent in its wake and set up allegations of unfairness, a rigged playing field and bias — the time available for campaigns to organise and register, and then for the vote to be held would be mightily tight to the March 29 deadline.

Were it to ratify the deal the government came back from Brussels with, no great problem. The other two possibilities, unfortunately, are a problem.

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